This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to...

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behaviour of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According...

We examine the relation between star analyst rankings and analysts’ forecast performance. To strengthen identification, we explore the exogenous variation in analysts’ incentives generated by the suspension of the New Fortune Star Analyst Contest in China. We find that the reduction in...