In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral subcomponents at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lag model we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...

In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified...

In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2012. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-of-sample exercises, we find that for most of the...

In diesem Papier evaluieren wir für 15 europäische Staaten, inwiefern Beschäftigungserwartungen die Prognosegüte des Erwerbstätigenwachstums verbessert. Unser Beobachtungszeitraum beginnt mit dem ersten Quartal 1998 und endet mit dem vierten Quartal 2014. Mit In-Sample- und...

In this paper we evaluate the forecasting power of employment expectations for total employment in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from 1998Q1 to 2012Q4. With in-sample and pseudo out-of-sample exercises we find that for most of the European states considered, the survey–based...