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With the advent of EMU monetary policy can no longer be used to prevent housing market bubbles in regional economies … such as Ireland or Spain. However, fiscal policy can and should be used to achieve the same effect. This paper shows that … the advent of EMU relaxed existing financial constraints in Ireland and Spain, allowing a more rapid expansion of the …
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Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous...
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of new models based on the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model, which is a flexible tool to detect bubbles and predict … dynamics of a crash after a bubble. We test the models using data from three historical bubbles ending in crashes from … Shanghai Composite index 2009 crash. All results suggest that the new models perform very well in describing bubbles …
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