distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are …. Our findings bear important implications for the ECB forecasting process and ultimately for its communication strategy. …

distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are …. Our findings bear important implications for the ECB forecasting process and ultimately for its communication strategy. …

underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the … target too quickly. These results cannot be fully explained by the persistence embedded in the forecasting models nor by …

between migration and fertility into a forecasting model. Next to the detailed and stochastic quantification of age …

This paper presents a forecasting exercise that assesses the predictive potential of a daily price index based on …

A forecasting exercise is presented to assess the predictive potential of a daily price index based on online prices …

of point and density forecasting. The relative accuracy is higher when the full distribution is predicted. We also …

Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … to individual models' forecasts. Our results point to three important conclusions. First, the forecasting accuracy of the …

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …