inflation rates of Turkey and propose a new weighting scheme, the time-varying simple weighting method. Our guiding principle … prospective credibility of the inflation-targeting regime of the central bank of the Republic of Turkey …

Forecasting inflation is an important and challenging task. In this paper we assume that the core inflation components … evolve as a multivariate local level process. This model, which is theoretically attractive for modelling inflation dynamics … estimates, as we show in a Monte Carlo exercise. In an application to euro-area inflation we find that our forecasts compare …

This paper analyzes the efficacy of SARIMA models in view of forecasting the inflation rates in the Turkish economy. We … perform rigorous tests on the stationarity and show that seasonality in the Turkish inflation rate is both deterministic and … stochastic in nature, with the latter form dominating the inflation process. Further, we provide the first study that tests for …

inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of subindices of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as opposed to … distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various model selection procedures are … component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months ahead …

In this paper, I apply univariate and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast inflation in Vietnam. To … properties of inflation in Vietnam. Then, I compute the pseudo out-of-sample root mean square error (RMSE) as a measure of … forecasting models from among the different candidates. I find that VAR_m2 is the best monthly model to forecast inflation in …

In this paper, we present an updated version of the reference model used at Banque de France to forecast inflation …: MAPI (Model for Analysis and Projection of Inflation). While the conceptual framework of the model remains very close to …

We evaluate inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Central Bank of Chile … accurate inflation forecasts. We evaluate these new forecasts in an out-of sample exercise. The new forecasts display important …