Previous research finds that historical seasonal earnings rank negatively predicts stock returns surrounding earnings announcements (EAs) in China’s A-share markets. We examine whether management earnings forecasts (MEFs) help reduce the stock return seasonality associated with earnings...

I hypothesize that the stock market overreacts to management earnings forecasts because of the uncertainty surrounding them. I find that negative management forecast surprises lead to a –5.9% abnormal return around the forecast and a 1.9% correction in the 2-month period after earnings are...

Measuring the information environment of firms using analyst (price) forecast bias and forecast dispersion before listing, we empirically examine the interactive influence of the information environment and market-wide sentiment on the initial returns of initial public offerings (IPOs). We find...

The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

Measures of a firm's financial strength forecast stock returns. The relation between financial condition and future returns, however, is consistent with two explanations: (1) changes in investors' expectations are impounded gradually over time and, (2) riskier firms - with higher discount rates...

We extend prior research examining the relation between aggregate recommendation changes and future returns by documenting that this relation varies over time as a function of the predictability of future earnings growth. When industry-level earnings growth is more predictable, we find that...

Individuals and asset managers trade aggressively, resulting in high volume in asset markets, even when such trading results in high risk and low net returns. Asset prices display patterns of predictability that are difficult to reconcile with rational expectations – based theories of price...

This paper studies whether investor sentiment can predict future Mexican stock market returns. Furthermore, we examine the dynamic correlation between sentiment and returns. Lastly, we examine whether sentiment innovations influence unexpected returns. We find that sentiment has significant...

Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...

An analysis of about 300000 earnings forecasts, created by 18000 individual forecasters for earnings of over 300 S&P listed firms, shows that these forecasts are predictable to a large extent using a statistical model that includes publicly available information. When we focus on the...