This paper considers predictive regressions, where y_t is predicted by all p lags of x, here with x being autoregressive of order q, PR(p,q). The literature considers model properties in the cases where p=q. We demonstrate that the current augmented regression method can still reduce the bias in...

We evaluate predictive regressions that explicitly consider the time-variation of coefficients in a comprehensive Bayesian framework. For monthly returns of the S&P 500 index, we demonstrate statistical as well as economic evidence of out-of-sample predictability: relative to an investor using...