react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …

react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …

environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

of world output. The forecasts are compared to typical benchmarks: univariate autoregressive and random walk models …. Building on the forecast combination literature, the paper examines the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast …

. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

This study assesses World Bank (WB) forecasts for growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) and its subcomponents … deterioration in the WB’s forecast accuracy of real GDP growth during the Great Recession in the aftermath of the financial crisis … private consumption plays a major role in explaining forecast error and upward bias of real GDP growth, while public …