A flexible statistical approach for the analysis of time-varying dynamics of transaction data on financial markets is here applied to intra-day trading strategies. A local adaptive technique is used to successfully predict financial time series, i.e., the buyer and the seller-initiated trading...

We examine article, author and firm characteristics of investment articles published by non-professional analysts on the social media investment platform Seeking Alpha from 2006 to 2020 leading to visible market value changes. We show that there are differences between articles followed by stock...

The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of sentiment derived from news headlines on the direction of stock price changes. The study examines stocks listed on the WIG-banking sub-sector index on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Two types of data were used: textual and market data. The...

This paper examines to what extent the momentum spread ratio (MSR) can predict momentum profits. The momentum spread ratio as a potential proxy of investor underreaction can significantly predict the momentum, industry momentum, and residual momentum, especially after 1994, suggesting that...

An accurate forecast of intraday volume is a key aspect of algorithmic trading. This manuscript proposes a state-space model to forecast intraday trading volume via the Kalman filter and derives closed-form expectation-maximization (EM) solutions for model calibration. The model is extended to...

We survey the literature on stock return forecasting, highlighting the challenges faced by forecasters as well as strategies for improving return forecasts. We focus on U.S. equity premium forecastability and illustrate key issues via an empirical application based on updated data. Some studies...

This work proposes to forecast the Realized Volatility (RV) and the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the most liquid Russian stocks using GARCH, ARFIMA and HAR models, including both the implied volatility computed from options prices and Google Trends data. The in-sample analysis showed that only the...