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By its emissions of greenhouse gases, economic activity is the source of climate change which affects pandemics that in turn can impact badly on economies. Across the three highly interacting disciplines in our title, time-series observations are measured at vastly different data frequencies:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012804940
We test the predictive accuracy of forecasts of the number of COVID-19 fatalities produced by several forecasting teams and collected by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the first and second waves of the epidemic in the United States. We find three main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216474
We test the predictive accuracy of forecasts of the number of COVID-19 fatalities produced by several forecasting teams and collected by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the first and second waves of the epidemic in the United States. We find three main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218789
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The outbreak of COVID-19 has brought the world economy at standstill which brings huge challenges to major affected countries. The impact of this disease on economy is highly uncertain putting policymakers in difficult situation to formulate appropriate policy in a short time. India being the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832650
We assess the forecasting performance of the nowcasting model developed at the New York FED. We show that the observation regarding a striking difference in the model's predictive ability across business cycle phases made earlier in the literature also applies here. During expansions, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012483310
An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT messages on letters of credit, together with crude oil prices and new export orders of manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of...
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