price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both insample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical … forecast accuracy: Mean Squared Prediction Error and Mean Directional Accuracy. We also show that the first principal component …

relies on the present-value model for stock-price determination. This model has the implication of Granger causality from … value of these firms is the price of the commodity they produce and export. Our results are consistent with this theoretical …

directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. -- Directional … forecasts ; directional forecast value ; forecast evaluation ; economic forecast value ; mean squared forecast error ; mean …

forecasts - to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years … signalling of stock price booms and bubbles …

forecasts -- to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years … signalling of stock price booms and bubbles. …

growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …