This paper compares the forecasting ability of five alternative types of models in predicting four key macroeconomic variables, namely, per capita growth rate, the CPI inflation, the money market rate, and the growth rate of the nominal effective exchange rate for the South African economy....

The paper develops a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model of the South African economy for the period of 1970:1-2000:4 and forecasts GDP, consumption, investment, short-term and long term interest rates, and the CPI. We find that a tight prior produces relatively more accurate forecasts...

This paper develops an estimable hybrid model that combines the theoretical rigor of a micro-founded DSGE model with the flexibility of an atheoretical VAR model. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly data on real Gross National Product (GNP), consumption,...

This paper analyzes whether a wealth of information contained in 126 monthly series used by large-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (LBVAR) models, as well as Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models, either Bayesian or classical, can prove to be more useful in forecasting real...

This paper develops large-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, based on 268 quarterly series, for forecasting annualized real house price growth rates for large-, medium- and small-middle-segment housing for the South African economy. Given the in-sample period of 1980:01 to...

This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1 to 1994:Q4; and then forecasts one-to-four quarters ahead real house price...

The paper uses Gibbs sampling technique to estimate a heteroscedastic Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) of the South African economy for the period 1970:1-2000:4, and then forecast GDP, consumption, investment, short and long term interest rates, and the CPI over the period of...

This paper develops a New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) Model for forecasting the growth rate of output, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate (91-days Treasury Bills rate) for the South African economy. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood...

This paper uses two-types of large-scale models, namely the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) and Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) Models based on alternative hyperparameters specifying the prior, which accommodates 267 macroeconomic time series, to forecast key macroeconomic variables of a small...

This paper uses Dynamic Factor Models (DFMs), estimated under both classical and Bayesian assumptions, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting per capita growth rate, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate for the South African economy....