The paper suggests two encompassing tests for evaluating multi-step system forecasts invariant to linear transformations. An invariant measure for forecast accuracy is necessary as the conclusions otherwise can depend on how the forecasts are reported (e.g., as in level or growth rates)....

The paper derives a test for equal predictability of multi-step-ahead system forecasts that is invariant to linear transformations. The test is a multivariate version of the Diebold-Mariano test. An invariant metric for multi-step-ahead system forecasts is necessary as the conclusions otherwise...

Central banks, private banks, statistical agencies and international organizations such as the IMF and OECD typically use information about the exchange rate some weeks before the publication date as the basis for their exchange rate forecasts. In this paper, we test if forecasts can be made...

In this study, we examine the daily returns and daily range returns dependent on close–close and the high–low prices when forecasting multifractal volatility in the Chinese stock market. In in-sample forecasting we find that both the daily returns and range returns have a significant impact...

The purpose of this discussion is to present to business forecasters and others who utilize forecast information a method for improving forecast performance. We summarize the generation of a forecast; evaluation of a forecast; and by example illustrate the optimal linear correction method for...

Traditional econometric models of economic contractions typically perform poorly in forecasting exercises. This criticism is also frequently levelled at professional forecast probabilities of contractions. This paper addresses the problem of incorporating the entire distribution of professional...