Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data,...

In this paper, we propose a simple dynamic mortality model to ft and forecast mortality rates for measuring longevity and mortality risks. This proposal is based on a methodology for modelling interest rates, which assumes that changes in spot interest rates depend linearly on a small number of...