Some time ago, the Commerce Department changed the way it calculates real gross domestic product. In response to that change, this paper presents an update of a simple model that is used to predict the growth rate of current quarter real output based on available monthly data. After searching...

The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal...