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A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation

Clark, Todd E.; Doh, Taeyoung - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - 2011

The concept of trend inflation is important in making accurate inflation forecasts. However, there is little consensus on how the trend in inflation should be modeled. While some studies suggest a survey-based measure of long-run inflation expectations as a good empirical proxy for trend...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010681636

Do macroeconomic announcements move inflation forecasts?

Amstad, Marlene; Fischer, Andreas M. - In: Review (2009) Sep, pp. 507-518

This paper presents an empirical strategy that bridges the gap between event studies and macroeconomic forecasts based on common-factor models. Event studies examine the response of financial variables to a market-sensitive "surprise" component using a narrow event window. The authors argue that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636072

Inflation forecasts: how good are they?

Croushore, Dean - In: Business Review (1996) May, pp. 15-25

Forecasts of inflation affect decision-making in many segments of the economy. But in the early 1980s, economists found that forecasts in surveys taken over the past 20 years systematically underpredicted inflation. As a result, many economists stopped paying attention to forecasts. However,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004967338

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

Binner, Jane M.; Tino, Peter; Tepper, Jonathan; … - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2009

for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money …, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment … forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004973888

Inflation expectations surveys as predictors of inflation and behavior in financial and labor markets

Englander, A. Steven; Stone, Gary - In: Quarterly Review (1989) Aut, pp. 20-32

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008456462

Expectations, money, and the forecasting of inflation

Pigott, Charles - In: Economic Review (1980) Spr, pp. 30-49

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352241

The magic's gone: a hard look at the data shows that the famous Phillips curve does no better at forecasting inflation than a simple look at the past

Clement, Douglas - In: The Region (2001) Sep, pp. 14-18

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352637

Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules

Gavin, William T.; Kliesen, Kevin L. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2006

single data series. In principle, information about other economic indicators should be useful in forecasting a particular … growth at horizons of 3, 12 and 24 months ahead. These forecasts are then compared to simple forecasting rules. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352782

Forecasting inflation using interest rate and time-series models: some international evidence

Hafer, R.W.; Hein, Scott E. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1988

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352934

Comparing inflation expectations of households and economists

Hvidding, James M. - In: Economic Review (1988) Q II, pp. 37-40

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360767