This paper examines disclosures by sell-side analysts when their institution has a lending relationship with the firms being covered. Lending-affiliated analysts’ earnings forecasts are found to be more accurate relative to forecasts by other analysts but this differential accuracy manifests...

This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West’s (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of West’s writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of...

This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong (1989). Two models are overlapping when the true model contains just a subset of variables common to the larger sets of...

With the concept of trend inflation now widely understood as to be important as a measure of the public's perception of the inflation goal of the central bank and important to the accuracy of longer-term inflation forecasts, this paper uses Bayesian methods to assess alternative models of trend...

This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary variables of interest, but also for their relevance to the...

In a speech to the Economic Club of Pittsburgh, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President and CEO Sandra Pianalto discussed why and how the Bank develops its economic forecasts and why the role of judgment becomes paramount for forecasting during uncertain times such as these. She concluded...

The presentation of a method for building a time series regional forecasting model for Texas that requires only ordinary least squares regressions to forecast the variables.

The purpose of this study is to examine the forecasting abilities of the same multivariate autoregressive model estimated using two methods. The first method is the "exact method" used by the SCA System from Scientific Computing Associates. The second method is an approximation method as...

An examination of whether one should seasonally adjust data before developing multivariate time series models to provide forecasts.

An argument that variations of extant general-equilibrium monetary models can generate real-time economic forecasts comparable in accuracy to those contained in the Federal Reserve Board's "Greenbook" briefing documents.