The cyclical properties of the annual growth of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for short-to-medium term forecasting performance are investigated. We show that the BDI has a cyclical pattern which has been stable except for a period after the 2007 crisis. This pattern has...

The massive explosion of literature, theory, and methods on all aspects of decision-analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence, over the past 20 or so years has brought a rapid specialization in each of the substrata of the fields that are using them. The sharp focus on empirical...

We examine whether industry-level forecasts of CPI and PPI inflation can be improved when we use the “exchange rate pass-through” effect, that is, when we account for the variability of the exchange rate and import prices. We build a forecasting model based on a two or three equation system...

This paper reports results from a forecasting study for inflation, industrial output and exchange rates for India. We cannot reject the null hypothesis for linearity for all series used except for the growth rate of the foreign exchange series and our analysis is based on linear models, ARIMA...

In this paper, we examine whether industry-level forecasts of CPI and PPI inflation can be improved using the ``exchange rate pass-through" effect, that is, when one accounts for the variability of the exchange rate and import prices. An exchange rate depreciation leading to a higher level of...