Address before the Charlotte Economics Club, Charlotte, N.C., Feb. 25, 2004

Presentation to the Arkansas Business and Economic Society and The Central Arkansas Chapter of the Risk Management Association, Little Rock -Feb. 15, 2001

Presentation to the Arkansas Business and Economic Society and The Central Arkansas Chapter of the Risk Management Association, Little Rock -Feb. 15, 2001

Address before the Charlotte Economics Club, Charlotte, N.C., Feb. 25, 2004

This article was originally presented as a speech at the Charlotte Economics Club, Charlotte, North Carolina, February 25, 2004.

Any research or policy analysis in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. Numerous previous studies of such time series reinforce the need to specify correctly a model's multivariate stochastic structure. This paper discusses in detail the...

Decision makers, both public and private, use forecasts of economic growth and inflation to make plans and implement policies. In many situations, reasonably good forecasts can be made with simple rules of thumb that are extrapolations of a single data series. In principle, information about...

For many years after the seminal work of the Meese and Rogoff (1983a), conventional wisdom held that exchange rates could not be forecast from monetary fundamentals. Monetary models of exchange rate determination were generally unable to beat even a naive no-change model in out-of-sample...

In this paper we model the U.S. economy parsimoniously in an a theoretic state space representation. We use monthly data for thirteen macroeconomic variables. We treat the federal deficit as a proxy for fiscal policy and the fed funds rate as a proxy for monetary policy and use each of them as...

One criticism of VAR forecasting is that macroeconomic variables tend not to behave as linear functions of their own past around business cycle turning points. This article investigates the methods and efficacy of forecasting with a VAR that expands the information set to include dynamic...