The main objective of our study is to model and forecast volatility as measured by the VIX index, with the aim of producing information to banks and also to macroeconomists. We begin with Arma/Arima models, augmented with Garch errors and exogenous regressors : some macroeconomic leading...

This study presents a model that delivers more accurate forecasts of the revised rather initial estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate in Switzerland during the period of the recent financial crisis. The key explanation to our findings is that our model, capitalizing on the information...

The connectedness of international equity markets can be measured building on the well-established forecast error variance decomposition framework. This approach permits the assessment of the propagation of shocks (spillovers) across equity markets on a day-to-day basis. The focus of our...

The distorting effects of oil price shocks on oil rich economies are also significant depending on the level of their vulnerability to external shocks. The paper assesses the impact of these shocks on macroeconomic variablesStructural VAR AnalysisThe results show that oil prices have...

The paper attempts to verify whether equity returns of individual firms, and their realized volatilities, improve the in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of the US business cycle, as measured by the IP index VAR analysis and tests for forecasting ability The equity returns of individual...

Establishing a full-fledged input-output tables and carry out various impact and alternative scenarios for socio-economic development of the economy. The modelling approach is based on input-output techniques and methodologies to measure the impact of various policy and scenario alternatives,...

Renewable energy deployment is growing rapidly on a global scale. China, Germany, Japan and the US are among the countries with highest capacity of renewables installed. In Germany, for example, the large growth in renewable power generation (RPG) capacities in the past has been mainly due to...

In this paper we build and estimate a two-region DSGE model of a small open economy within the European Monetary Union. We evaluate the properties of the estimated model and assess its forecasting performance (point and density) relative to reduced form models such as VARs. In addition, we study...

This paper presents a comparative study of the forecasting performance of the most widely used ARIMA modelling and seasonal adjustment programs: TRAMO/SEATS (TSW) and X13-ARIMA, which are the most important software alternatives for automatically modelling economic time series. The newest...

To investigate to what extent adding financial frictions can contribute to an improvement in the quality of DSGE model-based forecasts DSGE models with and without financial frictions. Comparison of point and density forecasts. The main finding is that accounting for financial frictions...