Timely and accurate signals about the current state of the economy are essential for analysts. The objective of the paper is to compare the accuracy of PMI-based nowcast of current quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth with that of the flash GDP estimateIn-sample regressions for 1998Q3-2011Q1...

The European project WASSERMed addresses issues of water availability and climate change in the Mediterranean. This paper illustrates the findings obtained in WASSERMed about impacts on tourism. The methodology is based on a bottom-up strategy. A micro-model has been developed, forecasting...

Ageing societies influence the development of industrialised countries. A changing age composition of the population not only affects pension and social security systems but also infrastructure, housing market, available workforce and consumption pattern. Though the process proceeds only slowly,...

The standard vector error correction (VEC) model assumes the iid normal distribution of disturbance term in the model. This paper extends this assumption to include GARCH process. We call this model as VEC-GARCH model. However as the number of parameters in a VEC-GARCH model is large, the...

This research forecasts the sales of an innovative agro-industrial product, the feta cheese from buffalo milk, in Thailand using limited information from January 2000 to August 2012. It aims to find how much data sufficiently needed for the prediction of accurate sales concerning that newly...

The fact that the literature tends to find biases in national fiscal projections has led to a growing claim in the academic and policy arenas for the need to introduce independent forecasts in the fiscal domain, prepared by independent agencies, like the European Commission (EC) in the case...

The main objective of our study is to model and forecast volatility as measured by the VIX index, with the aim of producing information to banks and also to macroeconomists. We begin with Arma/Arima models, augmented with Garch errors and exogenous regressors : some macroeconomic leading...

This study presents a model that delivers more accurate forecasts of the revised rather initial estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate in Switzerland during the period of the recent financial crisis. The key explanation to our findings is that our model, capitalizing on the information...

The connectedness of international equity markets can be measured building on the well-established forecast error variance decomposition framework. This approach permits the assessment of the propagation of shocks (spillovers) across equity markets on a day-to-day basis. The focus of our...

The distorting effects of oil price shocks on oil rich economies are also significant depending on the level of their vulnerability to external shocks. The paper assesses the impact of these shocks on macroeconomic variablesStructural VAR AnalysisThe results show that oil prices have...