, while the ECM implies symmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline. We quantify the forecast accuracy gains due …

distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops returns distribution, or vice … Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest … by using field crops returns. On the contrary, there is no evidence that ethanol can be used to forecast any region of …

are of a similar magnitude to those attained using macroeconomic indicators. We explain these forecast improvements with …

forecast models. This process is intended to serve as a general guideline for energy economists and practitioners who need to … apply sophisticated forecast models. …

statistically. We show that the task of forecast evaluation can be simplified from assessing a multivariate distribution over prices …

, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …