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Professional Forecasters and the Real-time Forecasting Performance of an Estimated New Keynesian Model for the Euro Area

Smets, Frank - 2013

(2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078530

Nowcasting Employment in the Euro Area

Banbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023

Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354741

Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors

Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2020

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845239

Nowcasting employment in the euro area

Bańbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014315194

PCCI : a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area

Bańbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena - 2020

Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301116

Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

Bluedorn, John C. - 2019

changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868467

The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area : what has changed since the great recession?

Dovern, Jonas; Kenny, Geoff - Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) - 2017

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636332

Tracking global economic uncertainty : implications for the euro area

Bobasu, Alina; Geis, André; Quaglietti, Lucia; Ricci, … - 2021

This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567

Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area -- an empirical assessment

Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - 2014

Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010248220

Do Labor Market Activities Help Predict Inflation?

Hu, Luojia - 2010

The authors conduct an empirical analysis of the role of labor market activities in inflation and conclude that wage … growth is not very informative for predicting price inflation. But price inflation does seem to help predict wage growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139458

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