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Consumer confidence indicators and economic fluctuations in Nigeria
Ibrahim, Adamu; Bawa, Sani; Abdullahi, Ismaila S.; … - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 285-300
Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers … of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on … economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473528
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Prediction as sport : the promise of prediction polls and markets
Kingsley, Jeremy - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010488943
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Usage and performance of bellwether polls for election forecasting
Wilson, Elizabeth J.; Paleologos, David A. - In: International journal of market research : JMRS ; the … 60 (2018) 2, pp. 132-146
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011887181
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Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490362
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Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014 - This version: December 3, 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011492072
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Cultural diversity on Wall Street : evidence from consensus earnings forecasts
Merkley, Kenneth; Michaely, Roni; Pacelli, Joseph - In: Journal of accounting & economics 70 (2020) 1, pp. 1-24
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301666
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Information aggregation in Poisson elections
Ekmekci, Mehmet; Lauermann, Stephan - In: Theoretical Economics 17 (2022) 1, pp. 1-23
The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013189048
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Information aggregation in Poisson elections
Ekmekci, Mehmet; Lauermann, Stephan - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 17 (2022) 1, pp. 1-23
The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012806603
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Empirical calibration of adaptive learning
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2015
performance in forecasting macroeconomic variables and in matching survey forecasts. Our results indicate a great degree of …. Calibrations to match survey forecasts are found to be lower than those derived according to the forecasting performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011316387
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On the plausibility of adaptive learning in macroeconomics : a puzzling conflict in the choice of the representative algorithm
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009663558