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We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 …. The prediction of choice reversal is then refined by introducing heterogeneity between decision makers through a …
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The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...
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This study estimates the suitability of prediction markets (as instruments of internal control) by analyzing their …. Concurrently, 12 prediction markets were set up, in which the participants could buy and sell their forecasts 24 hours a day, seven … it would influence the survey indicators, the prediction market prices, and their sensitivity to misinformation. Finally …
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We consider 1927 borrowers from 54 countries who had a credit rating by both Moody s and S&P as of the end of 1998, and their subsequent default history up to the end of 2002. Viewing bond ratings as predicted probabilities of default, we show that it is unlikely that both agencies are well...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509832
In this paper we introduce a calibration procedure for validating of agent based models. Starting from the well …-known financial model of Brock and Hommes 1998, we show how an appropriate calibration enables the model to describe price time series …. We formulate the calibration problem as a nonlinear constrained optimization that can be solved numerically via a …
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The paper explores the relationship between various orderings among probability forecasts that have been suggested in the literature. It is shown that well calibrated forecasters are in general not comparable according to the domination ordering suggested by Vardeman and Meeden (1983), that the...
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