The asymptotic distributions of the recursive out-of-sample forecast accuracy test statistics depend on stochastic integrals of Brownian motion when the models under comparison are nested. This often complicates their implementation in practice because the computation of their asymptotic...

We present a general method to detect and extract from a finite time sample statistically meaningful correlations between input and output variables of large dimensionality. Our central result is derived from the theory of free random matrices, and gives an explicit expression for the interval...

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, competing measures of the trend in macroeconomic variables such as US real GDP have featured prominently in policy debates. A key question is whether the large shocks to macroeconomic variables will have permanent effects — i.e., in econometric...

Diese Anmerkung zeigt, dass das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland einem trendstationären Prozess folgt. Dabei werden sowohl ökonometrische Tests, bei denen die Trendstationarität die Alternativhypothese ist, eingesetzt als auch solche, bei denen sie die Nullhypothese...

This paper shows that the evolution of the level of Mexico real and real per capita output between 1895 and 2008 can be adequately described through a trendstationary model, affected by 4 structural breaks, which occurred at dates that seem to coincide with domestic institutional arrangements,...

This note shows that German real GDP follows a trend-stationary process. Both tests which have trend-stationarity as the alternative hypothesis as well as tests that have it under the null hypothesis prefer the trend-stationary model. Explicit consideration of breaks in the trend is not...

Identification in the context of multivariate state space modelling involves the specification of the dimension of the state vector. One identification approach requires an estimate of the rank of a Hankel matrix. The most frequently used approaches of rank determination rely on information...

This paper analyzes the role of common data problems when identifying structural breaks in small samples. Most notably, we survey small sample properties of the most commonly applied endogenous break tests developed by Brown, Durbin, and Evans (1975) and Zeileis (2004), Nyblom (1989) and Hansen...