bank's own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical point of view, the latter should yield the highest forecast …

both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the …

and forecast stability for the US, we find that the driving forces behind the narrowing of the information advantage of …

with zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variable(s), and in a second step to derive the probability of … a suitably defined turning point from the forecast probability density function. This approach will never fail …

the estimation approach. A real-time application to the relationship between daily corporate bond spreads and quarterly …

is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual … forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution. …

Forecast models with large cross-sections are often subject to overparameterization leading to unstable parameter … sufficient prior information dominates competing approaches. In this paper we evaluate the forecast performance of large BVAR in … ranking of the different approaches depends inter alia on the target variable, the forecast horizon, the state of the business …

method with the direct forecast of the aggregate, a forecast which aggregates the disaggregate forecasts and a direct … forecast which additionally uses information from factors obtained from the disaggregate components. A recursive pseudo …

approach to analyze whether real interest rates and the rate of change of the real exchange rate help to forecast out …