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Professional Forecasters and the Real-time Forecasting Performance of an Estimated New Keynesian Model for the Euro Area
Smets, Frank - 2013
(2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078530
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Nowcasting Employment in the Euro Area
Banbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354741
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Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors
Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2020
In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845239
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Labor market effects of unemployment insurance design
Tatsiramos, Konstantinos; Ours, Jan C. van - 2012
With the emergence of the Great Recession unemployment insurance (UI) is once again at the heart of the policy debate. In this paper, we review the recent theoretical and empirical evidence on the labor market effects of UI design. We also discuss policy issues related to UI design, including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009656641
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Nowcasting employment in the euro area
Bańbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014315194
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PCCI : a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area
Bańbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena - 2020
Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301116
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Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts
Bluedorn, John C. - 2019
changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868467
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Search unemployment in a dynamic new Keynesian model of the business cycle
Gerke, Rafael; Rubart, Jens - 2003
The monetary transmission mechanism plays an important role in studying the effects of monetary policy on the real side of the economy. At least since Chari et al. (2000) it is generally accepted that new keynesian models of the business cycle display a persistence problem. In this paper, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011524517
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The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area : what has changed since the great recession?
Dovern, Jonas; Kenny, Geoff - Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) - 2017
This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636332
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Tracking global economic uncertainty : implications for the euro area
Bobasu, Alina; Geis, André; Quaglietti, Lucia; Ricci, … - 2021
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567