We derive risk-neutral option price formulas for plain-vanilla temperature futures derivatives on the basis of several multi-factor Ornstein-Uhlenbeck temperature models which allow for seasonality in the mean level and volatility. Our main innovation consists in an incorporation of omnipresent...

The majority of risk adjusted performance measures (RAPM) currently in use – e.g., Treynor ratio, (?/?)) ratio, Omega index, RoVaR, ‘coherent’ preference criteria, etc. – are incompat- ible with any sensible utility function and would be best avoided. We argue instead for the assessment...

I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...

This paper investigates whether ETF returns lead the returns of underlying bonds and similar style bond funds. Bond prices are often stale due to their lack of liquidity, and price discovery may occur in ETFs and then in underlying bonds. As predicted, we find that ETF returns predict its own...

This paper examines whether the inclusion of oil price shocks of different origin as exogenous variables in a wide set of GARCH-X models improves the accuracy of their volatility forecasts for spot and 1-year time-charter tanker freight rates. Kilian's (2009) oil price shocks of different origin...

We solve a dynamic general equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion preferences and continuous state endowment dynamics. We apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and show that the model generates an upward sloping term structure of nominal interest rates,...

The role of public sentiment in stock market volatility has recently become increasingly relevant. Twitter, in theory, offers an inexpensive way to measure real-time public sentiment. We take advantage of a natural experiment to assess the potential improvement that social media adds to forecast...

Dynamic equilibrium models based on present value computation imply that returns are predictable but also generate particular patterns of predictability in asset returns. I take advantage of this to construct a set of tests of Equilibrium Generated Predictability (EGP). I apply the tests to...