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Researchers who study crime and justice have been forecasting a variety of outcomes for nearly a century. Perhaps the … forecasts have been properly evaluated. In the hope of improving crime and justice forecasts in the future, this article reviews … modern forecasting methods and their applications to crime and justice questions. Among the key challenges for researchers …
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When race is not directly observed, regulators and analysts commonly predict it using algorithms based on last name and address. In small business lending--where regulators assess fair lending law compliance using the Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) algorithm--we document large...
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Proxies for race are commonly used in settings where race cannot be observed directly. In the context of small business lending, we examine the standard race prediction algorithm (BISG), which regulators use to assess compliance with fair lending laws. The algorithm relies on an individual’s...
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Fair use is often criticized as unpredictable and doctrinally incoherent - a conclusion which necessarily implies that the copyright system is fundamentally broken. This article confronts that critique by systematically assessing the predictability of fair use outcomes in litigation....
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