We provide a wind power forecasting methodology that exploits many of the actual data's statistical features, in particular both-sided censoring. While other tools ignore many of the important "stylized facts" or provide forecasts for short-term horizons only, our approach focuses on medium-term...

This study develops an improved fuzzy time series method via adjustment of the latest value factor and previous error patterns. There are many fuzzy extended applications in the literature, and the fuzzy time series is one successful implementation of fuzzy logical modelling. Fuzzy time series...

Forecasts play a critical role at inflation targeting central banks, such as the Bank of England. Breaks in the forecast performance of a model can potentially incur important policy costs. Commonly used statistical procedures, however, implicitly put a lot of weight on type I errors (or false...