We study how individual unemployment expectations are shaped and updated using a unique longitudinal survey data set with subjective unemployment expectations. The survey data is linked with third-party reported administrative data on unemployment realizations, such that we are able to examine...

This study provides evidence that state budget officials give biased forecasts. Specifically, in gubernatorial election years, state budget officers overestimate the growth in state personal income, U.S. personal income, and state revenues by 1.3%, 1%, and 2%, respectively. These biases are even...