Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using … of expectations for output growth, inflation, and the policy rate. We show that a simple unobserved components model of …

characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of … by term premiums, not expected short rates or inflation; 2) term premiums co-move more strongly across maturities than … is primarily the result of a decline of expected inflation and term premiums while expected future real rates have …

, relatively flat for CPI inflation, and upward-sloping for the federal funds rate; 3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons …