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The concept of a forecast horizon for a given player with respect to the set of equilibria in an abstract dynamic game is defined. Consideration is then given to the case of a stochastic dynamic game with memory-less perfect state information and the Nash equilibrium concept. Sufficient...
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The so-called El Farol problem describes a prototypical situation of interacting agents making binary choices to participate in a non-cooperative environment or to stay by themselves and choosing an outside option. In a much cited paper Arthur (1994) argues that persistent on-converging...
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This paper is the first to use the WeChat platform, one of the largest social networks, to conduct an online experiment of artificial investment games. We investigate how people's forecasts about the financial market and investment decisions are shaped by whether they can observe others'...
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We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining expert forecast disagreement and its evolution over horizons. Disagreement is postulated to have three components due to differences in: i) the initial prior beliefs, ii) the weights attached on priors, and iii)...
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Conventionally, game theory predicts that the joint mixed strategy of players in a noncooperative game will satisfy … strategies not satisfying it are assigned probability zero. As an alternative, we recast the prediction problem of game theory as … theory, on specifying a set of "equilibrium" mixed strategies, with a new focus, on specifying a probability density over all …
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Can game theory aid in forecasting the decision making of parties in a conflict? A review of the literature revealed …
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