fnancial institutions. We show that the 10-year Treasury yield's forward-looking volatility, a VIX-style measure that is a … volatility of crude oil prices over the near term. Using monthly data from 2003 to 2020, we document that higher implied … volatility in the 10-year U.S. Treasury derivatives market predicts declining oil prices and higher forward-looking volatility in …

The option implied volatility spread and skew predict stock returns. These variables also reflect the expected cost of … stock returns; however, the volatility spread and skew do not once this implied fee is considered. Results are similar for a … yet in stock prices. These findings indicate that the volatility spread and skew predict returns because they proxy for …