Recognition of the competitiveness of various export commodities is important in the design of industrial policies which shapes a country's structural transformation. The commonly used approach is the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) which was introduced by Balassa in 1965. Over the years,...

The 2018 M4 Forecasting Competition was the first M-Competition to elicit prediction intervals in addition to point estimates. We take a closer look at the twenty valid interval submissions by examining the prediction intervals' calibration and accuracy and evaluating their performance over...