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belief. Costly access to information on the returns to education induces agents to use potentially destabilizing backward …, agents will choose a more sophisticated prediction rule that dampens the cycle. Access to information becomes key for stable …
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One of the strongest leading indicators of economic activity is the number of people who file for unemployment benefits. Macroeconomists Robert Gordon and James Hamilton have recently examined the historical evidence. According to Hamilton's summary: "... in each of the last six recessions, the...
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In this work the precision and stability of the forecasts of Chile's unemployment rates are analyzed. Said models were obtained by a family of SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models, between February 1986 and February 2010. The SARIMA projections are compared with the...
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The identification of the business cycle turn points is a challenging task. In this context, the evolution of new data typologies as internet searches data strongly impacted the construction of approaches practical to forecast macroeconomic variables. This work emphasizes the significance of...
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policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of …-reported and caseworker assessments sometimes contain information not captured by the machine learning algorithm. …
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We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for …) assessments sometimes contain information not captured by the machine learning algorithm. …
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