The experimental approach is applied to explore the value of unidentified historical information in stock-return prediction. Return sequences were randomly drawn cross section and time from historical S&P500 data. Subjects were requested to predict returns or select stocks from 12 preceding...

While finance studies propose that forecast-confidence motivates trading, the experimental findings regarding the anticipated confidence-trading link are inconclusive and typically insignificant. Attempting to bridge the gap, we modify the standard interval forecasting task to measure the...

The standard interval forecasting task is modified, asking subjects to provide point predictions for future returns and assess the likelihood of fixed length intervals around their point estimates. The difference between the subjective likelihood estimates and the realized hit rate is advanced...