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Chances are...Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund and Attempts to Save It
Anderson, Michael W.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Lee, Ronald D. - 2008
We present forecasts of the Social Security trust fund, modeling key demographic and economic variables as time series. We evaluate plans for achieving long-term solvency by raising the normal retirement age (NRA), increasing taxes, or investing some portion of the fund in the stock market....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014220927
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Projection methods and scenarios for public and private pension information
Börsch-Supan, Axel; Ludwig, Alexander; Reil-Held, Anette - 2005
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002575782
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The impact of population aging on the German statutory pension insurance : a probabilistic approach
Vanella, Patrizio; Gonzalez, Miguel Rodriguez; Wilke, … - 2021
-as-you-go systems are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the numbers of pensioners in Germany up to 2040 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599101
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Population ageing and future demand for old-age and disability pensions in Germany : a probabilistic approach
Vanella, Patrizio; Gonzalez, Miguel Rodriguez; Wilke, … - In: Comparative population studies : CPoS ; open acess … 47 (2022), pp. 87-118
structure are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the number of pensions in Germany up to 2040. Our model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186784
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Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system
Härdle, Wolfgang; Mysickova, Alena - 2009
forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast … for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and …-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003814452
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Projection methods and scenarios for public and private pension information
Börsch-Supan, Axel - 2004
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013443227
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Analysis and forecasting of social security: a study of robustness
Westlund, Anders H.; Ermolieva, Tatiana; MacKellar, … - In: Financial modelling : with 74 tables : [a selection of …, (pp. 401-427). 2000
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001485064
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On the use of projection methods in the computation of OLG models
Heer, Burkhard; Trede, Mark - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik (2000) 1, pp. 32-47
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001451520
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Mortality forecasting at age 65 and above : an age-specific evaluation of the Lee-Carter model
Boucher, Marie-Pier Bergeron; Kjærgaard, Søren - In: Scandinavian actuarial journal 2022 (2022) 1, pp. 64-79
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872648
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Can age structure forecast inflation trends?
Lindh, Thomas; Malmberg, Bo - In: Journal of economics & business 52 (2000) 1/2, pp. 31-49
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001493105