The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...

Economic agents using information that is not incorporated in the econometric model is seen as a possible reason for why nonfundamental shocks are important in econometric models. Allowing for nonfundamental shocks in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis by considering moving average...