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What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the … their central tendencies. As is standard in survey measures, the subjects in our experiment must report their best guess of … the experiment are based on a percentile while almost 60% are based on a numerical value. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998
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Comparison of different question formats eliciting point predictions
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
laboratory experiment in which the participants act as forecasters and are asked to predict the next realisation of iid random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999
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Effects of feedback and task predictability on the accuracy of judgements
Hirst, Mark K.; Luckett, Peter F.; Trotman, Ken T. - 1993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000867512
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Predictive behavior : an experimental study
Brennscheidt, Gunnar - 1993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000877906
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The use of credible intervals in temperature forecasting : some experimental results
Murphy, Allan H.; Winkler, Robert L. - 1975
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000677262
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Overconfidence in predictions as an effect of desirability bias
Giardini, Francesca; Coricelli, Giorgio; Joffily, Mateus; … - In: Advances in decision making under risk and uncertainty, (pp. 163-180). 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003756451
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Forecasting hypothetical bias : a tale of two calibrations
Norwood, F. Bailey; Lusk, Jayson L.; Boyer, Tracy - In: Environmental economics, experimental methods, (pp. 447-465). 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003647713
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The descriptive and predictive adequacy of theories of decision making under uncertainty/ambiguity
Hey, John Denis (contributor); Lotito, Gianna (contributor);  … - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003741145
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Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments
Hommes, Cars (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008
Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257
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Thin-slice forecasts of gubernational elections
Benjamin, Daniel J.; Shapiro, Jesse M. - In: The review of economics and statistics 91 (2009) 3, pp. 523-536
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003880333