We examine whether inflation expectations obtained by open- and closed-ended questions lead to different inflation expectations through a randomized controlled trial. We find that different questionnaires measure significantly different inflation expectations, especially in the short term. We...

Using a standard decomposition of forecasts errors into common and idiosyncratic shocks, we show that aggregate forecast uncertainty can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the perceived variability of future aggregate shocks. Thus, the reliability of disagreement as a...