This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for estimating probability of a downturn in the economy and applies it to the 2007-2008 state of the U.S. economy with the focus on investigating the occurrence of a recession. In the methodological development, information theory (Kullback and Shannon)...

In modeling a combination of forecasts all the information related to the past performance of the individual forecasts, including accuracy and correlation, is considered. In this paper I have extended the modeling to incorporate a rank ordering of the forecasts by a decision maker. This ordering...

This paper presents a paper for producing a probability forecast of a turning point in U.S. economy using Composite Leading Indicators. This methodology is based on classical statistical decision theory and uses information-theoretic measurement to produce a probability. The methodology is...

On November 26, 2001, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the U.S. economy had officially entered into a recession in March 2001. This decision was a surprise and did not end all the conflicting opinions expressed by economists. This matter was finally settled in July 2002...

This paper presents a new Bayesian methodology for predicting a turning point in an economic system. The methodology utilizes information-theoretic measurements for assessing likelihood functions for a turning point. This methodology shows that the total information of a likelihood function...

In an attempt to predict a peak in the U.S. economy using a classical statistical decision methodology and a Bayesian methodology and using the 1996 revised composite leading economic indicators, it is learned that the Bayesian models have generally outperformed the classical statistical ones...