We use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the...

This paper contains a brief description of the methodological approach to economic fluctuations developed by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Applying this methodology to growth cycles of the West German economy gives rise to a large number of...