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-as-you-go systems are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the numbers of pensioners in Germany up to 2040 …
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structure are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the number of pensions in Germany up to 2040. Our model …
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forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast … for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and …-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain …
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