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Investors rely on the stock-bond correlation for a variety of tasks, such as forming optimal portfolios, designing … hedging strategies, and assessing risk. Most investors estimate the stock-bond correlation simply by extrapolating the … historical correlation of monthly returns and assume that this correlation best characterizes the correlation of future, annual …
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We study the non-linear causal relation between uncertainty-due-to-infectious-diseases and stock-bond correlation. To … this end, we use high-frequency 1-min data to compute daily realized measures of correlation and jumps, and then, we employ … this type of uncertainty on realized stock-bond correlation and jumps. Our findings reveal that uncertainty …
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In this paper we document the asymmetric role that the U.S. stock market plays in the international predictability of excess stock returns during recession and expansion periods. Most of the positive evidence accrues during the periods of recessions in the United States. During the expansions...
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The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
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