. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …

International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard evaluation measures, such as the root mean square forecast error. In comparison …

This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non … the current change in expenditure to forecast the current imports. Using U.S. data on aggregate expenditure and good …