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Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...
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This paper conducts tests of the rationality of both inflation and short-term interest rate forecasts in the bond … market. These tests are developed with the theory of efficient markets and make use of security price data to infer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787455
This paper conducts tests of the rationality of both inflation and short-term interest rate forecasts in the bond … market. These tests are developed with the theory of efficient markets and make use of security price data to infer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478629
Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...
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rationality of aggregate stock-market forecasts. The BRT algorithm endogenously selects the predictor variables used to proxy the …
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