Researchers who study crime and justice have been forecasting a variety of outcomes for nearly a century. Perhaps the most well known are forecasts of behavior after release from prison. Other examples include forecasts of prison populations and time trends in crime. However, it is very...

We compare the predictive performance in forecasting the onset of large scale political violence worldwide of five statistical models and three commonly used fragility/instability indices using PITF and UCDP data for the period 2000-2015. We find that the models typically outperform the rankings...

Prediction markets have been proposed for a variety of public policy purposes, but no one has considered their application in perhaps the most obvious policy area: crime. This paper proposes and examines the use of prediction markets to forecast crime rates and the impact on crime from changes...

In this paper we assess the forecasting performance of quarterly economic models of aggregate property and personal crime. We show that models that include long-run relationships between crime and its economic determinants tend to generate inaccurate forecasts, and attribute this to structural...