Credit boom detection methodologies (such as threshold method) lack robustness as they are based on univariate … detrending analysis and resort to ratios of credit to real activity. I propose a quantitative indicator to detect atypical … behavior of credit from a multivariate system - a monetary VAR. This methodology explicitly accounts for endogenous …

. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast framework based on enodogenous growth theory with human and fixed …